A sharp recovery in domestic cereal production is set to reduce Namibia’s dependence on imports during the 2026/27 marketing year, although the scale of the rebound masks persistent gaps in communal agriculture and leaves the country reliant on external supplies to meet much of its consumption needs. Cereal production is forecast to reach 155,000 tonnes in 2026, more than double last year’s output and almost 40% above the previous five-year average, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization’s Global Information and Early Warning System (FAO GIEWS).
The recovery has been driven largely by favourable weather conditions and stronger performance from commercial producers. Summer crops had largely been harvested by July, while the winter wheat crop was expected to be harvested from October. The commercial farming sector is expected to account for nearly 80% of national cereal production in 2026, compared with its typical contribution of about two-thirds. Maize yields in the sector are estimated to have nearly doubled against the previous five-year average, providing the main impetus behind the national recovery.
The stronger harvest is expected to lower cereal import requirements during the 2026/27 marketing year, which runs from May to April. Namibia nevertheless remains structurally dependent on external supplies, with imports historically accounting for about two-thirds of national cereal consumption. Maize and wheat continue to dominate the import basket, with maize sourced largely from South Africa and wheat predominantly imported from the European Union. The combination of stronger domestic production and a bumper South African maize harvest is expected to improve supply availability and place downward pressure on cereal prices.
“Reflecting the upturn in 2026 domestic production, cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year are estimated to be below both the five-year average and the previous year’s level,” said FAO. The improvement is already feeding through to the wider food economy. Annual food inflation stood at 3.7% in July 2026, down from 6.1% a year earlier, with stronger domestic cereal availability and lower South African maize prices expected to provide further relief. However, the national production gains conceal a more uneven agricultural recovery. Cereal output in communal farming areas remained below the five-year average, despite increasing by just over 20% from 2025.
Production of maize, millet and sorghum remained below average in communal areas, with maize recording the largest shortfall. The divergence highlights the continuing productivity gap between Namibia’s commercial and communal farming systems and the importance of improving access to inputs, technology, finance and climate-resilient production systems. The Zambezi Region was the only part of the country to record a decline in cereal production during 2026. Migratory red locust outbreaks and heavy rainfall between February and April caused flooding and crop damage, with maize particularly affected.
The uneven recovery also has implications for food security. Around 408,000 people, equivalent to 13% of the analysed population, were projected to face acute food insecurity at IPC Phase 3 or above between April and June 2026. Livestock conditions, meanwhile, have improved substantially across much of the country. Better grazing and water availability in the northeast, central, eastern and southern regions have supported livestock health, reproduction and productivity, with higher livestock and livestock-product sales expected to strengthen household incomes. Conditions remain more fragile in the Zambezi Region, where flooding and pest infestations have caused extensive agricultural losses and are expected to exacerbate food insecurity.
FAO said favourable weather had supported the stronger cereal harvest while improved grazing and water availability had strengthened livestock health, reproduction and productivity. The production rebound therefore provides Namibia with some near-term relief on food supply and import requirements, while also highlighting the longer-term challenge of converting stronger agricultural seasons into sustained domestic production capacity. The commercial sector’s outsized contribution demonstrates the potential to expand output but narrowing the productivity gap in communal farming will remain critical to strengthening food security and reducing structural import dependence.
