Namibia’s once-promising dairy industry is facing a precipitous decline, raising concerns about food security and the livelihoods of local farmers. Over the past five years, local milk production has plummeted by a staggering 35%, shrinking from 24 million litres in 2017 to a mere 15.6 million litres in 2022. Even more alarming is the drastic reduction in the number of dairy farmers, dwindling from 27 to a mere four, a stark indicator of the sector’s struggles.
A recent report released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Land Reform paints a grim picture, highlighting the key factors contributing to this dramatic decline. The primary culprit is the soaring cost of feed and fodder, much of which is imported, making locally produced dairy significantly less competitive against cheaper imports, primarily from neighboring South Africa.
Namibia’s dairy production landscape is characterized by two distinct systems. The intensive system, dominated by a single large-scale farm, relies exclusively on high-yielding Friesian cows and accounts for the vast majority (90-95%) of the nation’s milk output, producing approximately 1.4 million litres per month. In stark contrast, the remaining three dairy farmers operate on a semi-intensive or extensive model, utilizing Jersey and dual-purpose Brown Swiss cattle for both milk and meat production. These farmers, reliant on natural grazing, produce significantly lower volumes of milk. The extensive system, where cows raise their calves, further limits milk yields.
The ministry’s report underscores the urgency of addressing this crisis and emphasizes the importance of a comprehensive study conducted by the Livestock and Livestock Products Board (LLPB). This in-depth analysis will delve into the intricacies of the dairy value chain, identifying bottlenecks and exploring potential interventions to revitalize the struggling sector.
One key area of focus is the potential implementation of a market protection scheme, similar to those currently in place for pork and poultry. This could involve measures such as import levies or quantitative restrictions on market share, designed to level the playing field for local producers against the influx of cheaper imports, particularly from South Africa. The LLPB study will carefully evaluate these options, weighing their potential benefits against potential drawbacks.
Beyond market protection, the report highlights the need for a multi-pronged approach to revive the dairy industry. This includes the development and implementation of a National Dairy Master Plan, informed by the findings of the LLPB study. The master plan will likely encompass a range of initiatives, such as producer and retail pricing guidelines to shield local farmers from volatile market fluctuations, promoting local fodder production to reduce reliance on costly imports, and providing targeted support programs for dairy farmers. These support programs could include subsidies for feed, improved access to technology, and training programs to enhance farm management practices, all aimed at reducing production costs and boosting efficiency.
The decline of Namibia’s dairy sector has far-reaching implications for the country’s economy and food security. The agri-food sector, heavily reliant on both subsistence and commercial farming, plays a crucial role in the livelihoods of approximately 70% of the population. Subsistence farming contributes about 10% to the population’s income, while commercial farming accounts for a smaller 0.3%.
Since independence in 1990, the agricultural sector has contributed an average of 5.1% to the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP). However, this contribution has steadily declined from around 8% in 2006 to approximately 3.5% currently, partly attributed to the impacts of climate change and underinvestment in the sector.
Rainfall patterns in Namibia present another challenge. Only an estimated 8% of the country receives sufficient rainfall for viable crop production. Climate variability further exacerbates this issue, leading to recurring droughts and impacting agricultural output, thus threatening household food security in many regions. While irrigation offers a potential solution, its adoption requires significant investment and infrastructure development.
The revitalization of Namibia’s dairy industry is not just about boosting milk production; it’s about strengthening the agricultural sector as a whole, enhancing food security, and creating sustainable livelihoods for Namibian farmers. The recommendations stemming from the LLPB study and the subsequent National Dairy Master Plan will be critical in charting a course towards a more resilient and prosperous future for the dairy industry and the broader agricultural landscape.