Namibia has recorded a significant improvement in its acute food security situation, with the number of citizens facing high levels of food shortage (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, or IPC, Phase 3 or worse) plummeting by over 60%. The latest IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis, covering July 2024 to June 2025, shows the population in crisis dropped from an alarming 1.15 million in 2024 to approximately 456,000 in 2025. This success is largely credited to above-average rainfall, which boosted crop production, replenished water sources, and rejuvenated grazing lands for livestock across most regions.
The agricultural recovery is substantial, confirmed by the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Land Reform’s July 2025 report, which highlights a 75% rise in crop yields in communal areas compared to the previous year. Improved water availability, with most dams over 85% full, means the majority of households now possess sufficient food stocks, projected to last until December 2025. While the country sees a widespread shift to the Stressed phase (IPC Phase 2), three regions—Kunene, Kavango West, and Zambezi—remain in the Crisis phase (IPC Phase 3), indicating that families there still struggle critically to meet their daily food needs.
Despite the current stability, the outlook is not without risk. The IPC has issued a warning regarding a potential deterioration during the upcoming lean season, from October 2025 to March 2026. The number of people in Phase 3 is projected to rise again to an estimated 612,000, representing 20% of the population. This expected setback is critically linked to the scheduled termination of the national drought-relief programme in August 2025, combined with persistently high unemployment, which sits nationally at 36.9%, and limited income-earning opportunities in rural areas. High food prices, with annual food inflation hitting 6.4% in June 2025, are further intensifying financial stress on low-income households, which rely heavily on markets as their own stocks are depleted by December 2025.
The report urges continued vigilance and targeted investment to sustain these gains, recommending the maintenance of social grants, targeted food assistance, and conditional cash transfers. Furthermore, investments in agricultural inputs and nutrition programmes are deemed crucial for strengthening household resilience ahead of the next lean season. Key assumptions for the October 2025 to March 2026 period underscore the threat of localised dry spells due to anticipated above-average temperatures, increased risk of livestock diseases from persistent wet conditions, and the profound impact of the food relief withdrawal on poor and marginalised families.
